Nigeria’s overall balance of payments position experienced a slight dip in the first quarter of 2026, with the surplus dropping to $2.38 billion. According to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), this is down from the $2.67 billion surplus recorded in the final quarter of 2025.
While a falling surplus might sound concerning at first glance, a look under the hood reveals a mixed but highly resilient economic picture—championed by a massive surge in the country’s trade and current account performance.
The Current Account Surge
The standout highlight of the CBN’s Q1 2026 report is the current account surplus, which rocketed by an impressive 255.7% quarter-on-quarter to reach $4.98 billion. This is a dramatic leap from the $1.40 billion seen in Q4 2025 and comfortably outpaces the $3.41 billion recorded during the same period last year.
This boom was heavily powered by the goods account, which saw its surplus widen to $5.95 billion thanks to a combination of rising export revenues and a steep drop in fuel imports:
Export Growth: Total exports climbed to $15.49 billion, driven by a 19.8% increase in crude oil sales ($8.11 billion) and a 20.3% boost in refined petroleum product exports ($2.37 billion).
Import Drop: Total imports fell to $9.54 billion. Notably, imported refined petroleum products plunged by a massive 87.5% down to just $310 million, signaling a dramatic shift in local refining capacity and reduced reliance on foreign fuel.
Why Did the Overall Surplus Fall?
If the trade and current accounts performed so well, why did the overall balance of payments surplus slide? The answer lies in the weaker performance of services, remittances, and capital accounts:
1. Widening Services Deficit: Outflows for international travel and foreign business services pushed the services account deficit up to $3.71 billion.
2. Softer Diaspora Remittances: Personal transfers from Nigerians abroad dipped to $5.30 billion from $5.72 billion in the previous quarter, cooling down some of the external inflows.
3. Financial Account Pressures: The financial account stayed in a net borrowing position of $2.51 billion, and a sizable negative shift in net errors and omissions offset some of the big gains made by the trade sector.
Despite these balancing pressures, Nigeria’s broader financial cushion remains robust. The nation’s external reserves grew significantly during the quarter, climbing from $45.75 billion in December 2025 to $48.35 billion by the end of March 2026, proving that the country’s fundamental external position is still on solid ground.
