Premier League predictions and best bets: Manchester United to beat Brighton to make it three straight wins

Premier League Betting Insights: Manchester City and Arsenal Poised to Impress

Football betting analyst Jones Knows shares his expert perspective on the upcoming Premier League fixtures, highlighting Manchester City and Arsenal as strong contenders for bettors backing favorites.

Arsenal’s Second-Half Goal Surge: A Tactical Masterclass

A fascinating trend has emerged with Arsenal’s matches this season: the Gunners consistently score more goals after halftime than in the opening 45 minutes. Under Mikel Arteta’s guidance, Arsenal excel at controlling the game’s early stages, effectively stifling opponents by limiting space and opportunities. This defensive discipline results in a low-scoring first half, with only eight goals netted in the first halves of their last ten matches across all competitions.

However, as the game progresses and opposing teams tire or lose sharpness in decision-making, Arsenal’s attacking tempo intensifies, leading to a notable increase in goals after the break-16 goals in the second halves of those same ten games. This pattern suggests a strategic approach focused on game management early on, followed by a more aggressive push later.

Sky Bet offers odds of 11/10 for more goals to be scored in the second half than the first, making this an appealing betting angle.

Score Forecast: Arsenal 2 – 0 Crystal Palace

• 84% of Super 6 participants are backing Arsenal to overcome Crystal Palace this Sunday

Manchester City’s Defensive Resurgence and Erling Haaland’s Impact

Aston Villa vs Manchester City | Sunday 2pm | Live on Sky Sports

Manchester City have evolved into a more ruthless unit, demonstrating not only attacking prowess but also remarkable defensive strength. While Erling Haaland continues to dominate headlines with his goal-scoring exploits, the backbone of City’s success lies in their defensive organization. Ruben Dias anchors the backline with commanding authority, complemented by Gianluigi Donnarumma’s impressive goalkeeping form-he has conceded just four goals in eight Premier League appearances.

This defensive solidity has restored City’s ability to keep clean sheets, making the “City to win to nil” bet at 5/2 with Sky Bet a compelling option.

Despite Aston Villa’s strong home record-losing only once in their last 22 Premier League home matches-their expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes remain modest at 0.86, ranking them among the league’s lowest in offensive output. This statistical insight supports the prediction that Manchester City will secure a comfortable victory.

Score Prediction: Aston Villa 0 – 2 Manchester City

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: Expect a Tight, Low-Scoring Encounter

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest | Sunday 2pm | Live on Sky Sports

Contrary to popular belief that Bournemouth’s matches are high-octane affairs, recent data reveals a more subdued reality, especially at home. Over their last 12 Premier League home fixtures, the average goals per game at the Vitality Stadium stand at just 1.92, indicating a tendency toward lower-scoring contests.

Nottingham Forest, managed by Sean Dyche, are renowned for their disciplined, defensive approach. Dyche’s teams prioritize compactness and organization, focusing on limiting opponents’ chances rather than engaging in open, attacking play. This tactical style is particularly evident in away matches, where containment is key.

Given these factors, the under 2.5 goals market at 10/11 with Sky Bet represents a sensible wager.

Score Prediction: Bournemouth 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest

Wolves vs Burnley: A Crucial Clash with High Stakes

Wolves vs Burnley | Sunday 2pm | Live on Sky Sports

This fixture is a classic six-pointer, a match that could significantly influence the trajectory of both teams’ seasons. Wolves face immense pressure as they remain the only club across England’s top four divisions yet to secure a win this season. The atmosphere at Molineux is tense, and failure to perform against Burnley risks alienating an already frustrated fanbase.

Interestingly, sometimes the biggest challenge for a team is the weight of expectation at home, as seen with West Ham’s struggles this season. Wolves’ odds at Evens with Sky Bet appear slightly optimistic, making Burnley on the double chance at 4/5 a more prudent selection.

Score Prediction: Wolves 1 – 1 Burnley

Everton vs Tottenham: Defensive Solidity vs Attacking Struggles

Everton vs Tottenham | Sunday 4.30pm | Live on Sky Sports

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Under Thomas Frank’s stewardship, Tottenham have become a more structured and cautious side. Their defensive record is impressive, conceding just 0.8 goals per game over 13 matches. Frank’s focus on defensive fundamentals-shielding the centre-backs, controlling transitions, and maintaining midfield discipline-has paid dividends.

However, Spurs’ attacking output remains underwhelming. Their recent performance in Monaco highlighted a lack of creativity and quality chances, with an average of only 9.67 shots per 90 minutes across the last nine games. This imbalance between defensive strength and offensive inefficiency suggests a low-scoring affair.

Backing under 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Sky Bet is a logical choice.

Score Prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Tottenham

Jones Knows’ Top Betting Picks

• 1pt double: Cody Gakpo to score & Manchester City to win to nil (9/1 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ 2025/26 Profit & Loss Summary