A Landmark IPO in the Making

Aliko Dangote is preparing what could become one of Nigeria’s most consequential investment milestones in decades. The billionaire industrialist has announced plans to list his $20 billion Dangote Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) in 2026—introducing a rare structure that allows Nigerians to buy shares in naira while earning dividends in US dollars.

This approach is unusual in Nigeria’s capital market and arrives at a time when many investors are searching for ways to shield their wealth from persistent currency depreciation.

A Simple Concept With Far-Reaching Impact

Speaking at a business event in Lagos, Dangote disclosed that discussions are already underway with the NGX and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to finalize the framework for the refinery’s initial public offering.

The core objective, according to Dangote, is accessibility—creating an opportunity for everyday Nigerians to earn dollar-based returns similar to what international investors enjoy, without needing to convert their savings into foreign currency upfront.

Why the Refinery Can Pay in Dollars

Dangote explained that the refinery’s export profile makes dollar dividends sustainable. With active exports of petrochemicals and fertilizer already underway, the business is projected to generate at least $6.4 billion annually from exports alone.

This steady inflow of foreign currency, he noted, will support consistent dollar-denominated payouts to shareholders once the company is listed.

The Appeal of Dollar-Denominated Dividends

As the naira continues to face pressure, Nigerian investors have increasingly sought assets that preserve value in stronger currencies. However, such opportunities are often limited, complex, or inaccessible to the average person.

A locally listed stock offering dollar returns could dramatically shift that dynamic. Market analysts suggest the Dangote Refinery could quickly become one of the NGX’s most attractive listings, offering a built-in hedge against currency volatility.

In practical terms, investors would be buying shares with naira while receiving earnings in a currency that holds global purchasing power.

Part of a Much Bigger Vision

The refinery IPO is only one piece of Dangote Group’s broader ambition. The conglomerate is targeting $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030, a dramatic leap from its current turnover of approximately $18 billion.

Over the past five years, the group’s revenue has surged from about $3.3 billion to $18 billion, alongside steady growth in earnings—signals of expanding operational strength.

Dangote believes the group’s overall valuation could eventually exceed $200 billion. For the refinery, the plan is to initially float about 10 percent of the business on the NGX, with the possibility of international listings explored later, while keeping Nigeria as the company’s primary base.

What the Refinery Means for Nigeria’s Economy

The 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery is already producing diesel, aviation fuel, and petrol, reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and helping stabilize domestic supply.

Dangote has also revealed plans to expand capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day within the next three years, a move that would position the facility as the largest refinery in the world. The expansion is expected to be funded through a mix of partnerships and approximately $5 billion in financing, including support from Afreximbank.

A Potential Turning Point for the Stock Market

Energy and financial market experts believe the refinery’s dollar-dividend model could influence how other Nigerian companies approach capital raising and investor engagement. In a period of tight foreign exchange liquidity, such innovation could inject renewed confidence into the stock market.

What This Means for Local Investors

Analysts say Nigerians interested in long-term investing should pay close attention as regulatory approvals progress. Dangote Group has a reputation for strong dividend payments, and many expect the refinery to continue that tradition.

As one market watcher put it, “This could mark a new chapter in wealth creation. Buying in naira and earning in dollars may soon become a reality for millions of Nigerians.”

While final details are still being refined, one thing is clear: Dangote is laying the groundwork for Nigerians to directly benefit from one of the most transformative industrial projects in the country’s history.