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Nigeria’s Crude Oil Output Experiences Slight Decline in November 2025
According to the latest data released by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, decreased marginally by 0.7% to 1.486 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2025. This figure is down from 1.496 million bpd recorded in October 2025.
Understanding Nigeria’s Production Metrics and Condensate Exclusion
It is important to note that OPEC’s production quotas do not account for condensate volumes. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reports that Nigeria’s condensate production currently stands at approximately 196,028 barrels per day. This distinction is crucial for accurate quota assessments and market analysis.
OPEC’s December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report Insights
The figures were disclosed in OPEC’s December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, which is based on secondary source data. The report highlights that Nigeria did not meet its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd during November. However, data obtained directly from Nigerian authorities indicates a slightly different trend, showing an increase in crude oil output to 1.436 million bpd in November from 1.401 million bpd in October 2025.
Year-on-Year Production Comparison and Industry Challenges
Despite the recent dip, Nigeria’s crude oil production in November 2025 showed a modest improvement compared to 1.417 million bpd recorded in the same month of 2024. Industry analyst Wumi Iledare attributes Nigeria’s ongoing struggle to meet its OPEC quota to several persistent challenges, including security concerns in oil-producing regions, an aging oil infrastructure, and the absence of significant new oil discoveries.
Policy and Governance Factors Impacting Production
Iledare further emphasizes that governance deficiencies and policy inconsistencies have eroded investor confidence in Nigeria’s oil sector. The partial and uneven implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) has exacerbated these issues. He advocates for the appointment of a dedicated and empowered leadership figure with clear institutional authority to steer the country’s oil and gas industry towards stability and growth.
The Need for Strategic Reforms to Boost Output
Highlighting the inefficacy of relying on fragmented leadership approaches, Iledare notes that Nigeria has rarely, if ever, consistently achieved its OPEC production targets. He calls for comprehensive reforms and strategic initiatives to revitalize the sector, including opening new hydrocarbon blocks for bidding and enhancing security measures to protect oil infrastructure.
Looking Ahead: Nigeria’s Oil Sector in 2026
As global energy markets continue to evolve, Nigeria’s ability to stabilize and increase its crude oil production will be critical for both domestic economic growth and its standing within OPEC. With ongoing efforts to address structural and policy challenges, the coming year presents an opportunity for Nigeria to realign with its production commitments and attract renewed investment.
