‘England are the Super League of Europe’

Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle United, and Tottenham Hotspur all emerged victorious, with the first four currently occupying spots within the top eight-positions that guarantee automatic qualification to the knockout rounds.

Chelsea was the only English side to drop points, drawing 2-2 against Qarabag, yet they remain comfortably placed midway through the group stage.

This unprecedented feat of five teams from one nation winning simultaneously in the Champions League has now been achieved twice by English clubs this season.

Spanish football analyst Guillem Balague remarked to BBC Sport, “In the next five years, this era will be remembered as England’s dominance in European football. Bayern Munich and PSG can challenge, but beyond them, no other leagues come close.”

Given this commanding start, the question arises: Are English clubs the frontrunners to lift the Champions League trophy? And how realistic is the prospect of a fourth all-English final?

Arsenal’s defensive solidity is notable-they have kept clean sheets in every game while netting 11 goals, a tally surpassed only by Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Borussia Dortmund, and Barcelona.

Collectively, Premier League teams have outperformed their continental rivals, winning 17 out of 24 matches, scoring 56 goals-14 more than any other league-and conceding just 17 goals, a defensive record second only to French clubs, who have fewer representatives in the competition.

One of the primary reasons for this dominance is the financial clout of English clubs. The Premier League’s lucrative broadcasting deals have generated unparalleled revenue streams, enabling clubs to invest heavily in player acquisitions and wages.

Such financial muscle allows English clubs to build deeper squads, a factor evident in Arsenal’s strengthened roster, which has propelled them to the summit of both the Premier League and their Champions League group.

Balague added, “When considering resources, coaching quality, infrastructure, and even backroom staff, England truly functions as Europe’s super league. This is not just envy from Spain; it’s an objective observation of the current landscape.”

In 2017, five English clubs-Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham-advanced to the knockout rounds, setting a precedent. However, only Liverpool and Manchester City moved past the round of 16, with Liverpool ultimately finishing runners-up after losing to Real Madrid in the final.

According to Opta’s latest projections, Arsenal have a 99.8% likelihood of reaching the knockout phase, followed by Manchester City at 97.4% and Liverpool at 95.5%. Newcastle United, Chelsea, and Tottenham have slightly lower probabilities but remain strong contenders.

Former Liverpool midfielder Stephen Warnock cautions, “While the current form is impressive, knockout football is unpredictable. Last year, Liverpool topped their group but were eliminated by a resurgent PSG. The draw and matchups in later rounds will be decisive.”

The top eight currently feature familiar heavyweights such as Inter Milan, Paris Saint-Germain, and Real Madrid, alongside Bayern and four English clubs.

Meanwhile, Qarabag FK from Azerbaijan have defied expectations by drawing with Chelsea and accumulating seven points from four games, positioning themselves well for at least a playoff berth.

This equates to winning at least five games, a target that Premier League clubs appear on track to meet this year.

For those aiming for the playoff positions (ninth to 24th), the bar is lower. Club Brugge, for example, qualified last season with just 11 points from eight games.

Manchester City and Liverpool follow as the next most likely English finalists, with probabilities of 12.5% and 11.3%, respectively.

Former Everton midfielder Leon Osman emphasizes that the knockout rounds will be the true test of Premier League teams’ mettle. “Group stage success is promising, but the pressure and intensity of knockout ties reveal the real contenders,” he said.

Osman also suggests that Premier League clubs may finally be striking the right balance between domestic competition and European ambitions. “For years, we expected this dominance, but it hadn’t fully materialized. This season, the signs are encouraging.”

From those campaigns, English teams have reached the final 11 times, including three all-English finals in 2007-08, 2018-19, and 2020-21.

Currently, Opta forecasts the most probable final pairing to be an English club versus a German side, with Arsenal (38.8%) and Bayern Munich (27.3%) leading the charge.